Prediction Markets Come in From the Cold
By: Sabeeka Khan
Imagine a market where you can trade on whether a popular video game releases before December 2026, whether a CEO mentions “growth” on an earnings call, or whether the Supreme Court makes a particular ruling. Prices move up and down based on the collective beliefs about future events and a “share” priced at ten cents today promises one dollar if the event happens by the deadline. This is a new reality. Prediction markets operate just like stock markets, instead of betting on the financial growth of companies like Apple or Amazon, participants bet on the likelihood of real-world events.[1]

